Most of us don’t see the effects of global climate change when we look out the window.  As a result, it is often easier to rally support to clean up a dirty river or urban smog whose dangers are more observable.  But the lack of a visual jolt (except in films about the Arctic ice caps) is no reason to ignore the looming threat global warming poses to the quality of life we have known.  We have to think more clearly about this somewhat invisible environmental problem and what to do about it. 

There are many factors that cause the effects of climate change to get greater and greater as time goes by.  These mean we will see more and more evidence of rising sea levels, dehydration of soils, and other adverse impacts at an accelerated pace, absent a big change to business as usual.  Factor one, the earth’s population is steadily growing.  Two, per capita greenhouse gas emissions, largely from the combustion of fossil fuels, are also rising as people around the world ask energy to do more and more things.  Both of these factors are fairly well understood and have convinced most educated people we need to change how we produce and consume energy at some point. 

But how urgent is the problem?  To address the timing puzzle, we need to look at two additional factors unique to climate change. 

Factor three, the ability of the world’s oceans and plants to absorb carbon is diminishing.  These “sinks” are reaching saturation levels and will not be able to help us in the future they way they have in the past.  Thus, even if we keep global emissions constant, their adverse effects will continue to rise because more of them will be going into the atmosphere.

Fourth, and most importantly, many greenhouse gases emitted from human activities stay in the atmosphere for decades, and in some cases even longer.  This problem of mounting accumulations does not pertain to most major pollutants.  It is a major game changer.

As a result, our actions today will still be affecting the accumulations of greenhouse gases when our grandchildren reach our age.  Even if we cut carbon emissions world-wide, accumulations will continue to rise.

The convergence of these four factors cannot become an excuse for inaction.  The greater the emissions, the greater will be the problem.  Understanding factors three and four does tell us when we need to start making major changes in how we produce and consume energy.  The answer is now.

To learn more about Jay Hakes, http://jayhakes.com/ or Jay's book The Declaration of Energy Independence http://careereco.com/wikis/ecobook/a-declaration-of-energy-independence-by-dr-jay-hakes.aspx

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